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- The Tariff President
On Liberation Day in April, President Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs and promised a slew of trade deals would quickly follow.
A hundred days later, only two have been signed.
And after initially rolling back tariffs, Trump is again pressing forward. A 30% tariff on the European Union is set to take effect August 1. Letters to other trading partners indicate more tariffs are on the way.
Trump’s vision of strong-arming US trade partners is clashing with an unfortunate reality: trade deals are complex negotiations which take years to sign and implement.
As a result, expect trade uncertainty and tariffs to continue.
i) Status Check
As of July 2025, the United States has signed just two trade frameworks:
China: a trade détente to continue negotiations, rather than a complete framework
United Kingdom: a limited agreement focused on specific sectors. The deal lowers trade barriers, but has limited impact given the UK’s small trade footprint and deficit with the US
The US reached a temporary trade ceasefire with China and a limited trade framework with the UK
Trump’s Liberation Day Tariffs remain paused through August 1, but a global 10% minimum tariff and 30% rate on China are still in effect.
According to the Yale Budget Lab, US consumers now face an average effective tariff rate of 20.6%, the highest since 1933.1
ii) Trade Deals Are Hard
For the Trump administration, reaching trade deals has been slower than hoped.
Each country presents unique challenges and dynamics, which makes negotiations long and complex. Some of the largest issues include:
China: Intellectual property enforcement and geopolitical tensions
EU: Market access and regulatory standards
Mexico: Immigration and fentanyl
The USMCA (the updated NAFTA framework) was negotiated during Trump’s first term and took 18 months to sign.
Now imagine negotiating dozens of deals at once.
Past US trade deals took an average of 18 months
Based on historical agreements, most US trade deals have taken 12 to 24 months to negotiate and sign.
Despite the administration emphasizing that countless deals are around the corner, most trade deals likely several more months away, at least.
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iii) Tariffs Are Here to Stay
What are tariffs really for?
That’s been the million-dollar question since Trump took office.
Most thought tariffs were a bargaining chip to reach trade deals. However, it seems likely that tariffs will become permanent.
President Trump has championed tariffs as a way to collect more revenue while promoting domestic enterprises. He has lowered his ambitions of a domestic manufacturing base, but continues to promote the benefits of widespread tariffs.
Even with negotiation pauses, the global minimum tariff remains at 10% and tariffs on China sit at 30%. Trump also floated 30% tariffs for other partners including Mexico, Canada and the EU.
This 10%-30% range suggests a future baseline: a 10% minimum, with incremental country-specific add-ons, and a 30%+ rate for China.
And politically, Trump is winning the tariff fight.
Inflation hasn’t spiked as predicted. Recent employment data has been surprisingly robust. And $30 billion in monthly tariff revenue is hard to walk away from.
Trump’s Vision
Trump was not bluffing when he promised to transform global trade.
Most expected this to be done through bilateral trade deals, but tariffs have become Trump’s main trade weapon.
It’s clear that tariffs are the new direction of policy, while trade deals remain a long-term work in progress.
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