AI is reshaping private markets, and software is on the wrong side of it.
Software valuations have collapsed and investors are pulling back, leaving private equity and private credit exposed:
SaaS multiples have sunk to less than half of their recent peak
Technology buyouts are down 67% this year
Private credit is facing a maturity wall in ’28 and ’29
Read the full breakdown below.
This Week’s Data
H1 2026 State of SaaS (Forvis Mazars)
Valuation Reset
AI has created a sharp divide in the private markets.
Data center demand is driving a surge of transactions in infrastructure, energy and industrials. But in software, AI is forcing investors to reassess whether growth and earnings can hold up.
This uncertainty has flowed into transaction multiples. Today, the median SaaS multiple in PE deals has fallen to 11.7x, less than half of its 2024 peak.1
The impact of sinking valuations reaches beyond new deals. It increases the pressure on private equity’s exit backlog, and puts private credit in a difficult position as software loan maturities approach.
Dealmaking Freeze
Private equity has pulled back sharply from software. PE deal value in technology is down 67% year over year through September.2
Investors are avoiding the industry given the massive uncertainty surrounding valuations. It’s impossible to predict whether many of these software businesses, especially application and vertical software, will exist in five years.