In 2026, one dynamic is defining private equity: divergence.
Depending on where you sit, the market looks completely different.
For large asset managers, business is booming. For everyone else, it’s at a standstill.
Why private equity is diverging:
The scale premium is widening
Exits are concentrating at the top
LP capital is harder to come by
Read the full breakdown below.
On the Radar
Other reads worth your time this week.
Secondaries’ next layer raises old questions (Pitchbook)
5 Forces Driving M&A in 2026 (Morgan Stanley)
Private Equity is K-Shaped
2025 marked a comeback year for private equity. At least at face value.
Global buyout volume surged 44% to ~$900B, the second highest on record, only behind the 2021 boom.
But the rebound wasn’t widespread.
Megadeals ($10B+) drove a record 70% of the growth in deal volume.
In other words, most of the recovery belonged to the top of the market.
Scale is King
From weakening consumer demand and inflation, to trade disruption and tariffs, to widespread geopolitical conflict, uncertainty has been the only constant since the start of 2025.